Live demo: four real forecasts and plans

Dairy producer: daily unit sales for 7 yogurt products, next 28 days

"Forecast daily unit sales for each of our 7 yogurt products for the next 28 days so we can schedule production runs and cut product that gets returned."

We expect about 299,208 units sold over the next 28 days across all 6 series, about 10,686 per day on average.

We pick the method with the best score in testing, before seeing the hidden period. That is why the chosen method is not always the best one afterwards.

The plan: Four-week production plan for the yogurt line

Recommended: produce 58,100 units of product 1, 21,100 units of product 2, 17,700 units of product 3, 23,700 units of product 4, 140,400 units of product 6, 44,400 units of product 7 in 38 production runs over the next 28 days. Expected total cost $233,875, 12% less than producing the forecast plus 10%.

Why this plan: it balances the cost of running short ($2 per unit) against holding stock ($0.01 per unit per day), waste after the shelf life, and fixed costs per run, within the shared capacity.

Expected outcome: 91.5% of demand served, 31,438 units wasted, versus 86.9% served and 3,561 wasted with the rule of thumb.

Reality check: this plan was made as of Dec 03, 2022 without seeing later data. Replayed on what actually happened, it cost $204,542 against $225,911 for the rule of thumb: a measured saving of $21,369 (9.5%).

Stock left over at the end of the period (still within shelf life, at cost) is worth $8,925 under the plan and $400 under the rule of thumb. These comparisons count it as spent; in practice most of it carries into the next period.

Full case study, data source and license

Capital Bikeshare: hourly rentals for the next 7 days, using the weather

"Forecast hourly bike rentals for the next 7 days using the weather forecast, split by casual vs. registered riders, so we know where to rebalance and when to schedule maintenance."

We expect about 35,590 bike rentals over the next 168 hours, about 212 per hour on average.

We pick the method with the best score in testing, before seeing the hidden period. That is why the chosen method is not always the best one afterwards.

Full case study, data source and license

Pizza Place: pizzas sold per day, next 14 days

"Forecast how many pizzas (and orders) we'll sell each day and each hour for the next 14 days, by pizza type, so I can plan dough prep and how many people to put on each shift."

We expect about 1,946 pizzas sold over the next 14 days, about 139 per day on average.

We pick the method with the best score in testing, before seeing the hidden period. That is why the chosen method is not always the best one afterwards.

The plan: Two-week ingredient order plan from the pizza forecast

Recommended: order 510 kg of dough, 215 kg of mozzarella, 177 kg of tomato sauce, 2,050 units of boxes in 16 orders over the next 14 days. Expected total cost $5,262, 24% less than ordering the forecast plus 20%.

Why this plan: it balances the cost of running short ($9 of margin per pizza that cannot be made) against holding stock ($0.01 per unit per day), waste after the shelf life, with deliveries only on Mondays and Thursdays.

Expected outcome: 97.6% of demand served, 109 units wasted, versus 94.9% served and 109 wasted with the rule of thumb.

Reality check: replayed on what actually happened after Nov 30, 2015, the rule of thumb did better this time ($5,102 against $5,596, 10% cheaper). Across the forecast scenarios the plan is still the better bet on average, but this period did not show it.

Stock left over at the end of the period (still within shelf life, at cost) is worth $513 under the plan and $35 under the rule of thumb. These comparisons count it as spent; in practice most of it carries into the next period.

Full case study, data source and license

San Francisco 311: daily requests by channel, next 6 weeks

"Forecast how many phone, web and app requests we'll get each day for the next 6 weeks so I can build the agent schedule and still answer 80% of calls within 60 seconds."

We expect about 98,902 311 requests over the next 42 days across all 3 series, about 2,355 per day on average.

We pick the method with the best score in testing, before seeing the hidden period. That is why the chosen method is not always the best one afterwards.

The plan: Six-week agent schedule for the 311 contact center

Recommended: a schedule of up to 41 agents on 5-day shift patterns, 1,225 agent-days over the next 42 days. Expected cost $415,565, 3.6% less than staffing every day to the average workload plus 10%.

Why this schedule: workload is uneven across the week, so the plan puts about 31 agents on duty on weekdays and 26 at weekends instead of the same number every day. Staffing to the average (31 every day) leaves busy days short and quiet days idle.

Expected outcome: 98.3% of cases handled the same day (rule of thumb: 99.0%); labor $392,000 versus $416,640.

Service target: on every day there is enough capacity for the 60% forecast percentile of workload.

Reality check: this plan was made as of Aug 19, 2026 without seeing later data. Replayed on what actually happened, it cost $432,737 against $441,828 for the rule of thumb: a measured saving of $9,091 (2.1%).

Full case study, data source and license